Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5

score

6D 0x6d32…b3bb crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$17 (+6%) realized +$17 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR43%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown16%max

Avg bet$35per market

Trades / day13.0pace

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +43%

net ROI/market (all)-8.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+1.0%	-8.6%	86%	43%	+2.1%
≤30d	7	+1.0%	-8.6%	86%	43%	+2.1%
≤90d	7	+1.0%	-8.6%	86%	43%	+2.1%
all	7	+1.0%	-8.6%	86%	43%	+2.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.6%	43%	+2.1%
10%	-17.4%	14%	-7.7%
15%	-25.4%	14%	-16.6%
20%	-32.7%	0%	-24.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 30% · top 2 58% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +13% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.22 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×7.33 per $1 lost it wins $7.33

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$30

Realized+$17

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$35

Trades / day13.0

Drawdown16%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$30	$30	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Jun 16	$21	+$10	+48%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 16	$84	+$8	+10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 16	$72	+$11	+16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$4	+19%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Jun 16	$20	+$1	+5%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 16	$30	+$3	+10%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	BUY Up	66¢	$21	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Up	91¢	$92	1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$84	1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Down	85¢	$72	2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	64¢	$5	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Up	73¢	$10	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	SELL Down	71¢	$11	3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	BUY Down	66¢	$10	3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$21	3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	BUY Down	73¢	$20	3h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	SELL Up	92¢	$33	4h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	82¢	$30	4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	66¢	$30	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.23 · official $30.23 (match) · 17 history records