Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:25:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6D 0x6d30…ce29 sports 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 58d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23,275 (-7%) realized −$22,891 · open −$384
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%53W / 51L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,268per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Fees−$3,373est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$755now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$637
7 days+$1,323
14 days−$7,013
30 days−$8,970
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$12,103
other 1% −$1,616
world 0% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -19.3% -27.0% 55% 45% -4.4%
≤30d 69 -16.0% -24.0% 55% 43% -17.9%
≤90d 104 -17.8% -25.7% 51% 42% -13.2%
all 104 -17.8% -25.7% 51% 42% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.7% 42% -13.2%
10% -32.8% 33% -21.5%
15% ← realistic here -39.3% 21% -29.1%
20% -45.2% 12% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$3,511) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
31.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,456 vs −$1,811 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$755
Realized−$22,891
Unrealized−$384
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses53 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$3,373
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage58d ⚠
Avg bet$3,268
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas Washington Freedom 57¢ 36¢ $1,046 $666 −$379 (-36%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Scotland Scotland 31¢ 30¢ $93 $88 −$4 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $154 +$46 +30%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $152 −$7 -4%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $230 −$230 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Netherlands Jun 25 $955 +$45 +5%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $1,861 −$1,846 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs West Indies Jun 24 $7,073 +$1,355 +19%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $45 +$74 +162%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $1,938 +$686 +35%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $84 −$84 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $94 −$94 -100%
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Los Angeles Knight Riders Jun 22 $2,370 +$1,519 +64%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $1,199 +$401 +34%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 21 $547 +$58 +11%
Major League Cricket: Texas Super Kings vs San Francisco Unicorns Jun 21 $1,384 +$228 +16%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $437 −$437 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland Jun 20 $3,089 +$266 +9%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $206 −$206 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Jun 20 $339 −$139 -41%
Major League Cricket: Los Angeles Knight Riders vs San Francisco Unico Jun 20 $116 −$116 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Ireland Jun 19 $924 +$98 +11%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $27 +$7 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $730 +$270 +37%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $94 −$94 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Scotland Jun 18 $2,580 −$2,090 -81%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $950 −$950 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 18 $840 +$160 +19%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $507 +$97 +19%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $67 +$3 +4%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $4,480 +$205 +5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $1,789 −$1,780 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 15 $4,680 +$150 +3%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $1,590 −$1,590 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $6,593 −$6,583 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1,674 +$549 +33%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $5,012 +$1,609 +32%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $426 −$426 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $1,647 +$175 +11%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $4,250 +$1,983 +47%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $1,581 −$141 -9%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 10 $1,258 +$46 +4%
T20 Blast: Northamptonshire vs Worcestershire Jun 09 $276 +$165 +60%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $3,591 −$3,581 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $6,477 +$1,822 +28%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $8 6m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $38 6m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $8 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $788 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $22 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $46 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $1 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $38 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $500 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $8 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $76 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $38 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $38 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $38 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $38 7m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $10 8m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $11 8m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $27 8m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $38 8m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $38 8m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $50 8m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $76 8m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $38 8m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $5 8m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas SELL Washington Freedom 38¢ $10 10m
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Washington Freedom 56¢ $112 1h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Washington Freedom 59¢ $118 1h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Washington Freedom 60¢ $10 1h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Washington Freedom 60¢ $7 1h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Seattle Orcas BUY Washington Freedom 60¢ $7 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $754.72 · official $754.72 (match) · 3500 history records