Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
6D 0x6d30…b380 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$429 (+31%) realized +$435 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate100%8W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$162
30 days+$414
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$5
sports 36% +$414
crypto 17% +$10
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +82.5% +65.1% 100% 100% +65.8%
≤90d 7 +36.3% +23.3% 100% 43% +38.3%
all 8 +31.8% +19.3% 100% 38% +36.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.3% 38% +36.7%
10% +7.9% 38% +23.6%
15% -2.5% 38% +11.7%
20% -12.1% 38% +0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% too few recent
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$555
Realized+$435
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses8 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage173d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $561 $555 −$6 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $174 +$162 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $152 +$98 +65%
Penguins vs. Flyers May 28 $172 +$154 +90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? Apr 22 $244 +$10 +4%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 10 $18 $0 +1%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 10 $22 $0 +1%
Negative GDP growth in 2025? Apr 10 $22 $0 +1%
Starmer out in 2025? Jan 17 $27 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $285 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $285 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 51¢ $174 9d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 60¢ $152 21d
Penguins vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 52¢ $172 57d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 10? BUY Yes 96¢ $244 69d
Negative GDP growth in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $22 152d
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 99¢ $22 152d
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2026 Australian Open? BUY No 99¢ $18 152d
Starmer out in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $27 172d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.80 · official $554.80 (match) · 18 history records