Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d2c…4e2d crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-13%) realized −$83 · open +$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%8W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$124
sports 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -36.5% -42.5% 31% 31% -42.4%
≤30d 26 -36.5% -42.5% 31% 31% -42.4%
≤90d 26 -36.5% -42.5% 31% 31% -42.4%
all 26 -36.5% -42.5% 31% 31% -42.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.5% 31% -42.4%
10% ← realistic here -48.0% 23% -47.9%
15% -53.0% 23% -53.0%
20% -57.6% 23% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -36% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -47% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$83
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses8 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? Up 8¢ 12¢ $50 $72 +$22 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$18 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$19 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $43 −$41 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$7 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $62 +$37 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$7 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$31 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 18? BUY Up 8¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $38 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $62 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $8 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.88 · official $71.88 (match) · 42 history records