Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:43:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6D
0x6d2b…129b
crypto · 1429 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$263 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$264 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$264
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses873 / 554
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1427 / 1429
History coverage27d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day75.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 2 History 1427 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$113
7 days−$17
14 days−$98
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees No 26¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+92%)
Will François Bayrou be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 27¢ 15¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$6 +67%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$2 +46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +34%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +30%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$6 +82%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$8 +145%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$3 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 +$3 +42%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$4 +70%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$7 +90%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 95% −$167
other 4% −$91
sports 1% −$3
politics 0% −$3
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $3 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $11 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $3 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 314 +0.2% -9.3% 60% 60% -10.2%
≤30d 1427 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 61% -11.9%
≤90d 1427 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 61% -11.9%
all 1427 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 61% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover75.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 61% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -20.7% 60% -20.3%
15% -28.4% 40% -28.0%
20% -35.4% 26% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.24 · official $3.24 (match) · 3500 history records