Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d28…ad7c sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$40 (+3%) realized +$61 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%31W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day21.6pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$17
other 6% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -0.0% -9.5% 48% 46% -5.8%
≤30d 65 -0.0% -9.5% 48% 46% -5.8%
≤90d 65 -0.0% -9.5% 48% 46% -5.8%
all 65 -0.0% -9.5% 48% 46% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 46% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 46% -14.8%
15% -26.1% 46% -23.0%
20% -33.3% 45% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$14 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$61
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses31 / 34
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)65 / 69
History coverage5d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day21.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Galions 34¢ 100¢ $20 $57 +$37 (+191%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 25¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Solary 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 40¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$10 +100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$13 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $22 −$22 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$32 +158%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $22 +$31 +140%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $24 +$26 +105%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$12 +156%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$19 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 +$19 +89%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 +$7 +59%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $16 +$8 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $25 +$33 +128%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $17 +$26 +152%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$17 +83%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$8 -35%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $31 +$41 +134%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $39 −$20 -52%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$29 +142%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$73 -71%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $32 +$22 +70%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $56 +$31 +57%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $11 +$9 +85%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$25 +250%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $38 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 +$20 +114%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 41¢ $10 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 33¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 40¢ $16 1h
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 34¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 25¢ $23 2h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 31¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $16 3h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 50¢ $10 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 43¢ $10 5h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 50¢ $20 6h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 38¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 17h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 17h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $23 18h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 13¢ $20 20h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY LYON 48¢ $24 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 41¢ $22 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $15 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $10 23h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 3 Winner BUY RED Canids 43¢ $20 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $13 24h
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 53¢ $21 24h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 39¢ $6 25h
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner BUY LOS 39¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $58 26h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 44¢ $5 26h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 66¢ $7 26h
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner BUY Galions 66¢ $10 26h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 39¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $25 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.24 · official $57.24 (match) · 126 history records