Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6D 0x6d22…f004 other 78 markets active 1h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$120 (+1%) realized +$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate25%19W / 58L
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$284per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$11
other 19% +$11
politics 11% −$7
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
sports 1% +$128
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 59 +3.6% -6.2% 20% 14% -8.1%
all 77 +3.9% -6.0% 25% 14% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 14% -9.0%
10% -15.0% 14% -17.7%
15% -23.2% 13% -25.7%
20% -30.7% 12% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$2 · ×5.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses19 / 58
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)77 / 78
History coverage608d
Avg bet$284
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $253 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $26 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $46 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $36 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $38 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $134 $0 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $221 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $250 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $194 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $196 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 06 $197 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 4? May 06 $77 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 3? May 04 $84 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $188 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $207 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $207 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $210 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $199 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $209 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $205 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $192 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $393 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Apr 25 $192 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 25 $204 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $189 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $212 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $208 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $195 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $411 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $196 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Apr 11 $23 +$1 +3%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $14 +$8 +60%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 08 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 59m
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 3h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 18h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $117 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $31 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 7d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 11d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 11d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 13d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $29 15d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $29 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $27 15d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $27 15d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 17d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 18d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 18d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $28 23d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $28 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $44 24d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $44 24d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $134 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.83 · official $116.83 (match) · 278 history records