Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6D 0x6d22…ea55 world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,890 (-24%) realized −$1,893 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%34W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$125per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$70
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$482
world 29% −$835
other 20% +$251
crypto 20% −$636
tech 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +80.0% +62.9% 100% 100% +62.9%
≤30d 1 +80.0% +62.9% 100% 100% +62.9%
≤90d 11 +7.6% -2.7% 82% 73% -5.2%
all 63 -7.2% -16.0% 54% 44% -26.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 44% -26.9%
10% -24.1% 33% -33.9%
15% -31.4% 21% -40.3%
20% -38.1% 16% -46.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$122 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized−$1,893
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses34 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage252d
Avg bet$125
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 83¢ 86¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 18 $88 +$70 +80%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 15 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 13 $51 −$51 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 13 $110 +$20 +18%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 10 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $98 +$15 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $20 +$6 +30%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 22 $56 +$36 +64%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $46 +$10 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 20 $35 +$11 +32%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 16 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 16 $327 −$71 -22%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 15 $84 +$9 +11%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Mar 10 $100 −$16 -16%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 28 $354 −$354 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 28 $20 −$10 -51%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $200 −$58 -29%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $2 $0 +15%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 20 $51 −$51 -100%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 19 $327 −$327 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 2 days or more? Feb 15 $339 +$8 +2%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 13 $254 +$285 +112%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 11 $192 +$68 +36%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Feb 08 $106 +$50 +47%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 03 $74 +$2 +3%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Feb 02 $37 +$6 +18%
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more? Feb 01 $98 −$98 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $30 +$8 +25%
Will there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes a Feb 01 $38 +$23 +59%
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31? Jan 30 $147 −$147 -100%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $385 −$385 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31? Jan 25 $225 +$59 +26%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 05 $248 −$52 -21%
U.S. anti-cartel strike/operation on foreign soil by December 31? Jan 04 $266 −$211 -79%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jan 01 $95 +$345 +361%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 31 $369 −$368 -100%
Trump announces new drug boat strike by December 31? Dec 29 $214 −$214 -100%
Trump x Khamenei talk in 2025? Dec 29 $55 −$26 -47%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? Dec 29 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Dec 28 $216 −$133 -62%
Will Russia capture Huliaipole by December 31? Dec 28 $208 −$207 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 25 $268 +$264 +99%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 22 $272 −$170 -62%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Dec 19 $125 +$200 +161%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 15? Dec 11 $24 +$8 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 03 $100 −$24 -24%
U.S. anti-cartel operation on foreign soil by November 30? Dec 01 $116 +$82 +71%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 12 $145 −$145 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in November? Nov 12 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $100 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $158 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $104 34d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 82¢ $25 35d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $130 35d
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi BUY Yes 84¢ $26 35d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 35d
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $110 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 39d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 87¢ $98 51d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $26 56d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 56d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY Yes $14 56d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $56 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 57d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $46 58d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 76¢ $35 61d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $22 94d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY Yes 66¢ $93 94d
US forces enter Iran by March 14? BUY No 90¢ $84 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? SELL No 46¢ $84 99d
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? BUY No 88¢ $12 104d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY No 55¢ $100 104d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 50¢ $88 104d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No $200 109d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 38¢ $154 109d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes $10 109d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $142 109d
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $2 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.01 · official $103.01 (match) · 410 history records