Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:41:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d21…e6aa crypto 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,327 (-73%) realized −$1,327 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate27%13W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$11
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$1,321
world 4% −$13
sports 2% −$23
other 2% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-48.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.9% +39.3% 50% 50% +7.1%
≤30d 3 +2.6% -7.1% 33% 33% -9.5%
≤90d 37 -64.1% -67.6% 16% 14% -76.8%
all 48 -43.0% -48.4% 27% 21% -76.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.4% 21% -76.0%
10% -53.3% 19% -78.3%
15% -57.8% 17% -80.4%
20% -62.0% 15% -82.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -74% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -74% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -41% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$43 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,327
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage228d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$34 +165%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 −$23 -57%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 18 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 18 $20 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 18 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 18 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 18 $7 +$9 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 16 $108 −$108 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 16 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 16 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 16 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 16 $11 +$20 +179%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 09 $76 −$13 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 7PM ET Apr 05 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Apr 05 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 05 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 10PM ET Apr 05 $87 −$87 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 8, 3PM ET Apr 05 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 8PM ET Apr 05 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 21? Apr 05 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Apr 05 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11PM ET Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 11, 6PM ET Apr 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 18, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 18 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 18 $10 +$34 +335%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jan 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jan 17 $21 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jan 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jan 17 $11 +$18 +168%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 3PM ET Jan 11 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 4AM ET Dec 17 $409 −$409 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 3AM ET Dec 17 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 2AM ET Dec 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 13, 9PM ET Dec 14 $57 +$30 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 21¢ $17 25h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $40 26h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $11 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $30 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $30 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $20 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $17 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $6 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $0 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $16 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 37d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $6 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $7 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $12 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $2 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 39d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 163 history records