Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d1a…895c sports 165 markets active 13h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$108 (-40%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate49%79W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$33
14 days−$55
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$101
crypto 9% −$11
other 5% $0
politics 1% −$1
weather 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -53.0% -57.4% 22% 17% -81.5%
≤30d 79 -40.0% -45.7% 38% 27% -62.1%
≤90d 161 -29.0% -35.8% 49% 36% -47.8%
all 161 -29.0% -35.8% 49% 36% -47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.8% 36% -47.8%
10% -41.9% 22% -52.8%
15% -47.5% 15% -57.4%
20% -52.7% 9% -61.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses79 / 82
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)161 / 165
History coverage63d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump say "Big League" or "Bigly" in June? Yes 88¢ 51¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Team Yandex win BLAST Slam VII? Jun 07 $1 $0 +40%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $1 +$1 +65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $4 −$3 -73%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $4 −$4 -97%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $3 $0 +13%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $3 +$1 +34%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southea Jun 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea (DP) win the 2026 South Korean loca Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs L1ga Team (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Cl Jun 03 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +213%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Jun 02 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on June Jun 02 $1 $0 +4%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Eastern Europe Jun 01 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $1 $0 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1 +$1 +70%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs BALU (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western Europe Cl May 31 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $1 $0 +49%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs OG (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualifier May 30 $3 −$2 -64%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $1 $0 +8%
Will PARIVISION win BLAST Slam VII? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 $0 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China SELL Yakult Brothers 100¢ $2 13h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Yakult Brothers 49¢ $1 15h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere $5 33h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $5 40h
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Mentality Monster $1 43h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe BUY Carstensz $3 2d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 $4 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY 31¢ $1 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? AND Will Switzerland wi BUY 18¢ $1 4d
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe BUY Nemiga Gaming $5 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Liquid ID vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - MPL In BUY Team Liquid ID $4 5d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Dewa United Esports $1 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Dewa United Esports $0 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Dewa United Esports $1 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Dewa United Esports $1 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Dewa United Esports $2 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Dewa United Esports $1 6d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Dewa United Esports vs Geek Fam ID (BO5) - M BUY Dewa United Esports $1 6d
Counter-Strike: CYBERSHOKE Esports vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Se BUY CYBERSHOKE Esports $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.56 · official $1.54 (match) · 327 history records