Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d19…296e sports 431 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,088 (-5%) realized −$1,097 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%186W / 242L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$440
7 days−$385
14 days+$44
30 days+$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,339
other 5% +$10
finance 3% +$108
culture 1% −$160
weather 1% −$66
world 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -18.6% -26.4% 48% 44% -28.2%
≤30d 131 +6.0% -4.1% 51% 50% -6.1%
≤90d 295 -7.1% -15.9% 44% 43% -19.3%
all 428 -6.5% -15.4% 43% 43% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 43% -16.2%
10% -23.5% 41% -24.2%
15% -30.9% 39% -31.5%
20% -37.7% 34% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$38 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized−$1,097
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses186 / 242
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions2
Markets (closed)428 / 431
History coverage107d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 428 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 44¢ $116 $120 +$4 (+4%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Los Angeles Dodgers 8¢ 12¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $81 −$81 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $137 −$137 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $149 +$11 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $62 −$62 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$26 +52%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $23 +$26 +109%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $40 +$24 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $37 −$37 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $89 −$89 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $71 −$71 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$53 +78%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$63 +62%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $171 +$39 +23%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$38 +78%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $129 +$42 +33%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $88 +$38 +43%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $51 +$32 +63%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +227%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $51 +$35 +69%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $43 −$43 -100%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $36 +$58 +162%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$36 +118%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $50 +$49 +98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $55 +$60 +108%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $62 +$102 +166%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $32 +$52 +163%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $107 +$40 +37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $29 +$28 +96%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $12 +$42 +334%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $40 +$20 +51%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $140 +$254 +181%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $40 +$14 +36%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $31 +$15 +49%
LoL: RED Canids vs Fluxo W7M - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $118 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 8¢ $12 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 21¢ $18 3h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 23¢ $20 5h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $81 5h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $47 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $90 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $10 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 19¢ $38 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 50¢ $159 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 25¢ $40 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 36¢ $60 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 17¢ $19 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 26¢ $43 8h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $71 9h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 28¢ $10 11h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 7¢ $10 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 47¢ $23 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 27h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $40 32h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $37 43h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $89 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $61 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 63¢ $71 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $122 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $69 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $165 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 61¢ $51 6d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $51 6d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $171 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $137.39 · official $135.89 · 1138 history records