Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:22:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d17…7763 crypto 157 markets active 1h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%65W / 92L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$125
7 days−$125
14 days−$125
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$248
world 3% −$18
other 1% −$10
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -27.3% -34.3% 33% 33% -31.5%
≤30d 9 -27.3% -34.3% 33% 33% -31.5%
≤90d 9 -27.3% -34.3% 33% 33% -31.5%
all 157 -18.2% -26.0% 41% 41% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.0% 41% -12.4%
10% -33.1% 40% -20.8%
15% -39.6% 38% -28.4%
20% -45.5% 35% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$43 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses65 / 92
Open positions0
Markets (closed)157 / 157
History coverage109d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 157 Trades
no open positions (83 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$24 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $115 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $100 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$44 +56%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $78 −$75 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Mar 05 $174 −$172 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 05 $91 +$83 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Mar 05 $55 +$41 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 05 $39 +$46 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Mar 05 $80 −$59 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 05 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 05 $75 −$74 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 05 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 05 $15 −$15 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 05 $40 +$45 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 05 $60 +$51 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 03 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 03 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 03 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 03 $72 −$71 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 03 $30 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 03 $55 +$53 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 03 $10 +$12 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 03 $20 +$23 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Mar 03 $10 +$10 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Mar 03 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Mar 03 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Mar 03 $45 +$40 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Mar 03 $30 +$25 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Mar 03 $232 −$229 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 03 $250 −$13 -5%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 03 $50 −$11 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 03 $60 −$59 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 03 $150 +$157 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 03 $172 +$80 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 03 $108 +$65 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 03 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 03 $30 +$20 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Mar 03 $50 +$65 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Mar 03 $50 +$43 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $133 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $99 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $121 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 81¢ $80 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $32 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $174 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $174 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $91 104d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 404 history records