Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d16…3b42 sports 181 markets active 2h ago coverage 173d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%13W / 167L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$4
politics 22% −$3
other 21% +$2
economics 9% −$2
world 8% −$1
crypto 7% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.4%
all 180 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

173d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses13 / 167
Open positions1
Markets (closed)180 / 181
History coverage173d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 95¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 18 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 21 $127 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 21 $236 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $166 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $110 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $191 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $180 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $93 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $160 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 21 $143 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 21 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $389 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $125 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $94 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 21 $49 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 21 $48 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $152 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 21 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $141 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 21 $155 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $107 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $186 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $163 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $16 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 20 $173 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 21, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $101 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $38 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 12d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 12d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $41 25d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $41 25d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $36 39d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 39d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $45 125d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $45 125d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 125d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 125d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 125d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $41 125d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $17 125d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 94¢ $17 125d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $41 125d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $41 125d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $44 125d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $44 125d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $43 125d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $43 125d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $28 125d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $15 125d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $44 125d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 98¢ $40 125d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $40 125d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $46 125d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 96¢ $46 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? SELL No 96¢ $42 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? BUY No 96¢ $42 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.93 · official $37.93 (match) · 718 history records