Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

6D 0x6d16…2848 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$96 (-65%) realized −$91 · open −$5

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip

Net edge-100%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 66d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-100.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	no closed markets
≤30d	no closed markets
≤90d	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
all	4	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
10%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
15%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%
20%	-100.0%	0%	-100.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -100% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$24 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage

Net worth$45

Realized−$91

Unrealized−$5

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage66d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open?	Yes	42¢	38¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-9%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Apr 13	$8	−$8	-100%
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Apr 13	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Apr 13	$33	−$33	-100%
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Apr 13	$44	−$44	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Rory McIlroy finish in the Top 10 at the 2026 U.S. Open?	BUY Yes	42¢	$51	1h
Will Jason Day win the 2026 Masters tournament?	BUY Yes	3¢	$33	65d
Will Patrick Reed win the 2026 Masters tournament?	BUY Yes	1¢	$11	65d
Will Hao-Tong Li win the 2026 Masters tournament?	BUY Yes	2¢	$44	65d
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 Masters tournament?	BUY Yes	12¢	$8	65d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.27 · official $45.27 (match) · 9 history records