Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d0b…9225 world 26 markets active 2d ago coverage 457d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 88% −$5
other 7% $0
politics 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -4.0% -13.1% 33% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 31% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 -2.3% -11.6% 31% 0% -10.3%
all 26 -1.4% -10.7% 46% 0% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.3%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

457d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage457d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $8 −$3 -32%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $34 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $35 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $78 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $34 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $39 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $27 −$1 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $20 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $19 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? Dec 13 $9 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23? May 24 $1 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Marcel Ciolacu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runo Apr 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Blues win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 20 $8 $0 +1%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 01 $12 −$1 -4%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Mar 25 $12 $0 -3%
Will 'Opus' gross between 3-5m on opening weekend? Mar 18 $12 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $31 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 15¢ $6 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $8 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $7 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 68¢ $27 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $34 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $21 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 94¢ $13 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $34 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $4 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $19 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $17 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 78¢ $37 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 78¢ $37 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 75¢ $2 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $22 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $12 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 71¢ $21 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 71¢ $21 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 38¢ $37 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 74 history records