Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:00:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6D 0x6d0b…a941 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (73 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$254 (+18%) realized +$252 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate74%29W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day73.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (73 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +19.3% +8.0% 74% 56% -10.6%
≤30d 39 +19.3% +8.0% 74% 56% -10.6%
≤90d 39 +19.3% +8.0% 74% 56% -10.6%
all 39 +19.3% +8.0% 74% 56% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.0% 56% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -2.4% 33% -19.2%
15% -11.8% 18% -27.0%
20% -20.4% 13% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 59% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$44 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$252
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses29 / 10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day73.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Down 78¢ 84¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 27 $78 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $56 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $103 −$65 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$33 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $51 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $31 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 27 $51 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$217 +708%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 27 $30 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $29 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Up 6¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $32 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $33 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.08 · official $25.16 · 114 history records