Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6D 0x6d02…6255 world 281 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,035 (+2%) realized +$930 · open +$105
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate72%197W / 75L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$201per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,840now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days−$58
14 days−$160
30 days+$938
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$1,546
other 14% −$181
politics 10% −$249
tech 7% +$104
crypto 5% −$42
sports 3% −$171
finance 1% +$48
economics 0% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -17.8% -25.6% 50% 27% -10.2%
≤30d 55 -2.9% -12.1% 62% 36% -5.0%
≤90d 144 -3.7% -12.8% 69% 35% -7.1%
all 272 -4.6% -13.7% 72% 28% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 28% -7.9%
10% -21.9% 12% -16.7%
15% -29.5% 7% -24.7%
20% -36.4% 4% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$56 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$2,840
Realized+$930
Unrealized+$105
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses197 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions54
Markets (closed)272 / 281
History coverage136d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 97¢ 99¢ $1,182 $1,211 +$29 (+2%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $300 $324 +$24 (+8%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 82¢ 78¢ $328 $310 −$18 (-5%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 62¢ 94¢ $155 $234 +$79 (+51%)
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 89¢ $201 $210 +$9 (+5%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 87¢ 78¢ $174 $157 −$17 (-10%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $160 $124 −$36 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 85¢ 94¢ $85 $94 +$9 (+11%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 40¢ 52¢ $42 $55 +$13 (+31%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 18¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1007%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 14¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+725%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+671%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 12¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+593%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+371%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 7¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+299%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+137%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+41%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-49%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Peru win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 17 $315 −$156 -50%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $1,412 +$252 +18%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 17 $350 −$61 -18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +24%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $52 +$8 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,580 +$53 +3%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $714 +$57 +8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $630 −$62 -10%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$6 +12%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 14 $175 −$28 -16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$6 +12%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $1,123 +$14 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $408 +$85 +21%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $162 −$55 -34%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 12 $299 −$66 -22%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $76 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $153 +$6 +4%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jun 12 $200 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $192 −$120 -62%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $937 +$90 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $48 −$26 -54%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $203 −$15 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $285 −$6 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 07 $200 +$64 +32%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $81 −$68 -83%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $100 −$12 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $302 −$140 -46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $490 +$10 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $215 +$208 +97%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $249 +$44 +18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 01 $160 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $204 −$13 -6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $1,645 +$356 +22%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? Jun 01 $768 +$2 +0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $200 +$44 +22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $336 +$54 +16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $303 +$143 +47%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $735 +$85 +12%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $92 +$8 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $148 −$90 -61%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $9 +$16 +180%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $183 +$25 +14%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $96 −$96 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $201 +$15 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $611 +$5 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 22 $251 +$139 +55%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $551 +$65 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $57 7m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 35¢ $57 9m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $184 30m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $62 30m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $13 30m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $10 30m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $113 31m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 31m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 31m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $44 31m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $124 31m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 31m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 39m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $13 39m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 39m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 39m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $56 39m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 80¢ $40 39m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 40m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 54¢ $31 41m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 88¢ $399 44m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? SELL Yes 91¢ $1,090 46m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 72¢ $574 51m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 72¢ $42 51m
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL No 99¢ $1,211 53m
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? BUY Yes 70¢ $238 54m
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $58 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 72¢ $288 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 72¢ $20 5h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $22 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,839.72 · official $2,839.72 (match) · 1141 history records