Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:14:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cff…c3da other 154 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$86,429 (+67%) realized +$86,490 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%103W / 495L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$843per market
Trades / day97.9pace
Fees−$434est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 34d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$18,361
sports 20% −$487
tech 4% +$112
crypto 4% −$728
world 2% −$139
finance 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 479 +6.3% -3.8% 11% 9% -92.0%
≤30d 594 +18.5% +7.2% 17% 13% -80.3%
≤90d 598 +18.1% +6.8% 17% 13% -80.3%
all 598 +18.1% +6.8% 17% 13% -80.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.8% 13% -80.3%
10% -3.4% 11% -82.2%
15% ← realistic here -12.7% 10% -83.9%
20% -21.3% 10% -85.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt -97% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -13% → late +49% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$120 vs −$770 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$86,490
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses103 / 495
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$434
Open positions5
Markets (closed)598 / 154
History coverage34d ⚠
Avg bet$843
Trades / day97.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 598 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-96%)
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-96%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$12 (-97%)
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$12 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Latvia win the second Eurovision Semi-Final? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will Peyton Stearns win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$95 +16641%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$14 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Markéta Vondroušová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - November 18, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 20 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $173 −$173 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $0 −$6 -2039%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $166,666 −$166,666 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 20 $149 −$149 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 20 $149 −$149 -100%
Will Iga Świątek win the 2026 Women's Australian Open? Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$31 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Emma Raducanu win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 20 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 20 $149 −$149 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $198 −$198 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 16, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jack Draper win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
XRP Up or Down - November 26, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - November 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $28 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $22 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $15 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.82 · official $1.82 (match) · 3500 history records