Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
6C 0x6cff…da63 other 26 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$107 (+3%) realized +$148 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$298now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$351
7 days+$121
14 days+$300
30 days+$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% +$159
sports 19% +$107
crypto 8% $0
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.5% +0.9% 37% 32% -5.7%
≤30d 21 +16.3% +5.2% 38% 33% -0.5%
≤90d 23 +17.0% +5.9% 43% 35% -0.3%
all 23 +17.0% +5.9% 43% 35% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 35% -0.3%
10% -4.3% 30% -9.8%
15% -13.5% 30% -18.6%
20% -22.0% 26% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$73 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$298
Realized+$148
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 26
History coverage38d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $239 $197 −$42 (-18%)
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 +$78 +254%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$28 -94%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $154 −$69 -45%
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $102 +$371 +363%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $51 −$50 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $302 −$251 -83%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $309 −$11 -4%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $103 −$72 -70%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $152 +$98 +64%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $370 +$56 +15%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $306 −$173 -57%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 +$159 +79%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $90 +$300 +332%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $152 −$11 -7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $309 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $128 +$179 +139%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $12 −$2 -16%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $19 +$8 +42%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $18 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 96¢ $109 1m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 18m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 1h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $85 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? SELL Yes 100¢ $474 47h
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2d
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? SELL Yes 2¢ $51 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 11¢ $277 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 9¢ $25 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 65¢ $298 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes 5¢ $30 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $250 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $152 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $426 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 86¢ $370 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 43¢ $126 2d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $362 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $203 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 100¢ $287 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 35¢ $103 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $297.70 · official $297.70 (match) · 88 history records