Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:06:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cfe…c83c sports 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$517 (+13%) realized +$382 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$784per market
Trades / day63.0pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$348
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +8.8%
≤30d 4 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +8.8%
≤90d 4 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +8.8%
all 4 +12.0% +1.3% 50% 50% +8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover63.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 50% +8.8%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 50% -1.6%
15% -17.2% 25% -11.1%
20% -25.3% 0% -19.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$224 vs −$33 · ×6.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.84 per $1 lost it wins $6.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$382
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$784
Trades / day63.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 11¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $805 +$230 +29%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $287 −$62 -22%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 18 $514 +$217 +42%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $284 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 78¢ $635 24m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 82¢ $0 28m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 82¢ $100 28m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 81¢ $100 28m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 80¢ $100 29m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $60 29m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 79¢ $40 29m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 60¢ $805 31m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 13¢ $41 40m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 24¢ $184 45m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $5 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $2 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $7 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $6 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $79 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $10 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $8 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 24¢ $9 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 28¢ $153 50m
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $2 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $1 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $7 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 5¢ $0 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 24¢ $25 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 67¢ $557 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $35 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 1h
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 27¢ $82 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 63 history records