Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:41:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6cfc…661e sports 101 markets active 0h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,467 (-29%) realized −$2,975 · open −$492
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%22W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day7.1pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$730now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$217
7 days−$178
14 days−$427
30 days−$612
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$3,625
sports 30% +$643
crypto 6% −$62
politics 4% −$263
world 3% −$120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +76.2% +59.4% 28% 28% -21.2%
≤30d 66 +42.9% +29.3% 27% 26% -26.8%
≤90d 69 +38.6% +25.4% 28% 26% -17.4%
all 83 +25.0% +13.1% 27% 25% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.1% 25% -37.0%
10% +2.3% 25% -43.0%
15% -7.6% 22% -48.5%
20% -16.7% 20% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +88% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$111 vs −$88 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$730
Realized−$2,975
Unrealized−$492
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses22 / 61
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions4
Markets (closed)83 / 101
History coverage179d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day7.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $648 $587 −$61 (-9%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $494 $123 −$370 (-75%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes $60 $1 −$59 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $103 −$82 -80%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$31 +307%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $11 +$89 +784%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $30 +$213 +705%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 +$55 +538%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 28 $16 −$16 -98%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -96%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $20 −$3 -13%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 3 Portugal? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score AND Colombia vs. Portugal: Jun 27 $35 −$6 -16%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 3 England? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 27 $10 +$72 +700%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $20 +$71 +349%
Croatia vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $15 +$21 +133%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $10 −$4 -42%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $10 −$2 -15%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $10 +$120 +1165%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score AND New Zealand vs. Belgi Jun 27 $5 +$6 +127%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -98%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $5 +$28 +543%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $9 −$9 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $4 +$22 +537%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $10 +$42 +413%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 25 $21 −$5 -25%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $291 −$291 -100%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $296 −$296 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $11 −$11 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $29 −$29 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $54 −$52 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $51 +$149 +291%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $308 −$51 -17%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $183 −$6 -4%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $194 −$190 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 13m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $4 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $15 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $7 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $0 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $3 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over $12 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over $27 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 10¢ $13 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 16¢ $21 1h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 2h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 2h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 3h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 3h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $43 3h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $16 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY 33¢ $20 4h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 36¢ $19 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $730.49 · official $761.15 · 1449 history records