Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cf1…3c6b politics 41 markets active 3h ago coverage 16d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 16d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (209 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8,318 (-6%) realized −$8,025 · open −$293
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate33%10W / 20L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$3,204per market
Trades / day209.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$6,693now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 16d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$963
crypto 7% −$110
politics 5% −$234
sports 1% −$378
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (209 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -18.2% -26.0% 50% 0% -7.7%
≤30d 30 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 10% -8.4%
≤90d 30 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 10% -8.4%
all 30 -4.2% -13.3% 33% 10% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover209.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 10% -8.4%
10% -21.6% 7% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -29.2% 7% -25.2%
20% -36.1% 7% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$750) neutral
Persistence
early +8% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
50.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$204 vs −$75 · ×2.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$6,693
Realized−$8,025
Unrealized−$293
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses10 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions8
Markets (closed)30 / 41
History coverage16d ⚠
Avg bet$3,204
Trades / day209.4
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $2,208 $2,274 +$66 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $1,781 $1,774 −$6 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $1,280 $1,176 −$104 (-8%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 66¢ 62¢ $987 $932 −$55 (-6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $520 $490 −$30 (-6%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $210 $46 −$164 (-78%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+11%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $9,656 +$386 +4%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $139 −$34 -24%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 19 $720 −$115 -16%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 19 $678 +$31 +5%
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 19 $882 −$129 -15%
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $304 −$304 -100%
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? Jun 19 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $8,552 −$110 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $13,559 +$967 +7%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $460 +$40 +9%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $330 +$22 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,871 +$129 +7%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $939 +$4 +0%
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $360 −$69 -19%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $180 −$16 -9%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $86 −$17 -19%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $102 −$7 -7%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $120 −$22 -18%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $62 −$11 -18%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $540 −$30 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $750 −$378 -50%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $535 −$41 -8%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $104 −$17 -17%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $125 +$25 +20%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $232 +$198 +86%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $753 −$20 -3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $470 −$20 -4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 08 $141 +$238 +169%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $727 −$15 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $1,778 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $105 10h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 58¢ $216 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 62¢ $40 22h
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in SELL Yes 89¢ $709 22h
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $291 22h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 64¢ $133 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 64¢ $64 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 61¢ $9 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 61¢ $30 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 61¢ $3 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 61¢ $61 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 61¢ $3 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 61¢ $45 25h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $147 29h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $51 29h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $150 29h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $371 30h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? BUY No 72¢ $1 31h
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 66¢ $987 33h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2,208 33h
Will Richard Gordon Thomson win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY Yes 75¢ $150 36h
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY No 76¢ $279 36h
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY No 76¢ $6 36h
Will Douglas Lumsden win the 2026 Aberdeen South by-election? BUY No 76¢ $19 36h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $2,066 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $672 37h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $971 37h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $384 39h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,693.32 · official $6,743.28 (match) · 3500 history records