Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cef…af02 other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,409 (+3%) realized +$487 · open +$922
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate44%57W / 74L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$336per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$7,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$394
30 days+$465
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 59% +$1,761
world 22% −$5
finance 6% +$14
other 5% −$291
politics 3% −$306
tech 3% +$154
sports 2% −$10
culture 1% −$21
crypto 0% +$33
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 56% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 12 +9.0% -1.4% 67% 25% +9.7%
≤90d 54 -18.6% -26.4% 50% 19% -6.9%
all 131 -15.9% -23.9% 44% 18% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 18% -8.6%
10% -31.2% 12% -17.4%
15% -37.8% 8% -25.3%
20% -43.9% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -16% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$43 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$7,189
Realized+$487
Unrealized+$922
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses57 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions16
Markets (closed)131 / 147
History coverage252d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 77¢ 94¢ $1,626 $1,963 +$338 (+21%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes 35¢ 70¢ $537 $1,075 +$538 (+100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $776 $1,062 +$286 (+37%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? No 82¢ 85¢ $656 $680 +$24 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 71¢ 69¢ $533 $521 −$11 (-2%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $250 $425 +$175 (+70%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 56¢ 34¢ $555 $345 −$210 (-38%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 89¢ 89¢ $268 $268 +$0 (+0%)
Will Grahm Platner drop out before the Midterms? No 86¢ 86¢ $173 $173 +$0 (+0%)
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Yes 42¢ 34¢ $210 $172 −$38 (-18%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates stay above 2.5% in 2026? Yes 55¢ 88¢ $89 $140 +$52 (+58%)
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)? Yes 70¢ 100¢ $94 $133 +$39 (+42%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 41¢ 15¢ $205 $75 −$129 (-63%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 57¢ 58¢ $62 $63 +$2 (+3%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair and will rates hit 2.5% or lower in 2026? No 71¢ 92¢ $40 $52 +$12 (+30%)
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No 33¢ 77¢ $15 $36 +$20 (+133%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $7 $0 +1%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $10 $0 -1%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Jun 15 $396 +$4 +1%
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? Jun 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 14 $122 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 14 $106 $0 -0%
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $12 $0 +4%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 13 $225 +$5 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $798 +$351 +44%
Will stablecoins hit $500B before 2027? Jun 01 $155 +$34 +22%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 May 19 $201 +$71 +35%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,029 −$841 -82%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 30? May 01 $12 −$12 -100%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $6,517 +$518 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 29 $785 +$8 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 26 $5 −$2 -50%
Will Trump agree to Iranian Oil sanction relief in April? Apr 20 $265 −$77 -29%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $3,189 +$443 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $190 −$120 -63%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 15, Apr 17 $586 +$35 +6%
Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $76 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 16 $9 $0 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 15 $140 +$8 +6%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $208 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 15 $6 $0 +7%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $397.50 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $143 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 13 $19 −$3 -18%
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $72.50 Week of April 13 Apr 13 $11 −$1 -5%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $118 Week of April 13 2026? Apr 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by April 30? Apr 11 $990 +$35 +4%
US x Iran meeting by April 12, 2026? Apr 11 $237 +$12 +5%
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 11 $12 $0 +3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 08 $865 −$4 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $378 +$113 +30%
Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 15? Apr 07 $47 −$10 -20%
Will 45 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between March 30-Ap Apr 06 $117 −$4 -4%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 06 $276 +$20 +7%
US forces enter Iran by December 31? Apr 03 $288 −$216 -75%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $222 −$150 -68%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 29 $259 −$158 -61%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 27 $124 +$65 +52%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 27 $190 +$54 +28%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Mar 23 $78 +$3 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 22 $40 +$5 +12%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Mar 21 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20? Mar 21 $88 +$12 +14%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 18 $8,068 +$657 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? SELL No 46¢ $2 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $118 5h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 5h
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 5h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? SELL No 89¢ $53 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 57¢ $62 5h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? SELL No 89¢ $4 6h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? SELL No 89¢ $4 6h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? SELL No 89¢ $9 6h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? SELL No 89¢ $9 6h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? SELL No 89¢ $9 6h
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027? BUY No 46¢ $2 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down 53¢ $106 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down 53¢ $27 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down 53¢ $11 8h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 89¢ $268 9h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on SELL No 61¢ $122 10h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down 53¢ $13 10h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 10h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 53¢ $77 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 53¢ $3 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 11h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 53¢ $15 11h
Will annual inflation be 4.0% in June? BUY No 89¢ $89 11h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? BUY Down 53¢ $55 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 53¢ $106 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,189.06 · official $7,189.29 (match) · 1045 history records