Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:01:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6C 0x6ced…c05b sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$116 (-5%) realized −$116 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip

Net edge-26%after slip

Net WR14%break-even

Win rate76%16W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$86per market

Trades / day1.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$59

14 days−$120

30 days−$120

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +14%

net ROI/market (all)-25.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-2.4%	-11.7%	86%	29%	-16.0%
≤30d	21	-17.9%	-25.8%	76%	14%	-15.1%
≤90d	21	-17.9%	-25.8%	76%	14%	-15.1%
all	21	-17.9%	-25.8%	76%	14%	-15.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-25.8%	14%	-15.1%
10%	-32.9%	10%	-23.2%
15%	-39.3%	5%	-30.6%
20%	-45.3%	0%	-37.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 32% · top 2 51% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -28% → late -9% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$50 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.52 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$99

Realized−$116

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)76%

Wins / losses16 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)21 / 25

History coverage14d

Avg bet$86

Trades / day1.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: South Africa (-2.5)	Czechia	99¢	98¢	$99	$99	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$148	−$147	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$106	+$42	+40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$100	+$6	+6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$103	+$25	+24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$94	+$8	+8%
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)	Jun 11	$140	+$4	+3%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5)	Jun 11	$137	+$3	+2%
Will England win on 2026-06-10?	Jun 11	$119	+$19	+16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	Jun 07	$100	+$3	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Jun 06	$100	+$2	+2%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva	Jun 06	$1	−$1	-98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 06	$1	−$1	-98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	Jun 06	$2	−$2	-98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs	Jun 06	$112	+$5	+4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Jun 05	$100	+$2	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Jun 05	$100	+$2	+2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 05	$100	+$2	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	Jun 05	$100	+$3	+3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 05	$101	−$100	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Jun 05	$100	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4?	Jun 05	$99	+$5	+5%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: South Africa (-2.5)	BUY Czechia	99¢	$100	1h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5	BUY	44¢	$1	37h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$148	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	71¢	$106	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$100	4d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY	58¢	$27	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$127	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	80¢	$103	4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	92¢	$94	4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY	85¢	$50	5d
Spread: Kansas City Royals (-4.5)	BUY Texas Rangers	97¢	$140	6d
Spread: South Africa (-1.5)	BUY Mexico	98¢	$137	6d
Will England win on 2026-06-10?	BUY Yes	86¢	$119	7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$100	10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$100	12d
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva	BUY Maja Chwalinska	24¢	$1	12d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY HANJIN BRION	20¢	$1	12d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY JD Gaming	24¢	$1	12d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs	BUY JD Gaming	24¢	$1	12d
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs	BUY Team Heretics Academy	96¢	$112	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$100	12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$100	12d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	BUY Down	98¢	$100	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET	BUY Up	97¢	$100	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Down	81¢	$101	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$100	13d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4?	BUY Down	95¢	$99	14d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.30 · official $99.30 (match) · 43 history records