Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:23:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6ced…d59f crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 77d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$326 (-32%) realized −$278 · open −$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 77d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$80
crypto 30% −$294
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-62.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -23.5%
≤30d 1 -15.5% -23.5% 0% 0% -23.5%
≤90d 5 -58.1% -62.1% 0% 0% -68.0%
all 5 -58.1% -62.1% 0% 0% -68.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -62.1% 0% -68.0%
10% -65.7% 0% -71.1%
15% -69.0% 0% -73.9%
20% -72.0% 0% -76.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -58% · $-wt -65% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$65 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$437
Realized−$278
Unrealized−$48
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage77d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $485 $437 −$48 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $206 −$32 -16%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 05 $3 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 05 $287 −$287 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 05 $4 −$1 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $188 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 8¢ $136 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 0 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 9¢ $175 4h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 4¢ $36 4h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 4¢ $139 4h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $39 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $28 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 11h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 4¢ $56 11h
US forces enter Iran by April 30? SELL No 0¢ $1 77d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 77d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $50 77d
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 5, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $135 77d
US forces enter Iran by April 30? BUY No 0¢ $3 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 36¢ $3 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $4 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 77d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $436.76 · official $436.76 (match) · 30 history records