Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6C 0x6cec…a0ab sports 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$250 (+4%) realized +$252 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%76W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$145
7 days+$88
14 days+$88
30 days+$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$134
other 32% +$24
politics 9% +$77
world 4% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 44% -0.5%
≤30d 29 -3.6% -12.8% 45% 45% +1.0%
≤90d 120 -5.6% -14.6% 43% 42% -11.1%
all 178 -5.1% -14.1% 43% 42% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.1% 42% -6.7%
10% -22.4% 40% -15.6%
15% -29.9% 39% -23.8%
20% -36.7% 37% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$28 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$252
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses76 / 102
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)178 / 181
History coverage698d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $38 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 25¢ 24¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-6%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 48¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $91 +$92 +101%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $76 +$110 +146%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $33 +$28 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $46 +$48 +105%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $34 +$33 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$49 +250%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $45 +$27 +60%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $23 +$45 +197%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $41 +$36 +90%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 +$28 +79%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $18 +$15 +83%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Leeds United FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $46 +$52 +114%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 May 29 $53 +$48 +90%
SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 2.5 May 29 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 29 $27 −$27 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 11 $33 −$33 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $47 −$47 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 May 10 $58 +$57 +97%
West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $17 −$17 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $18 +$27 +146%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $54 +$47 +86%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $59 −$59 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Apr 30 $36 −$36 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Eberechi Eze: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Apr 19 $28 +$10 +34%
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $12 +$12 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 19 $38 −$38 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 3.5 Apr 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Arsenal FC leading at halftime? Apr 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 19 $71 +$99 +140%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 15 $21 +$77 +365%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $45 +$74 +165%
Liverpool FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 15 $250 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $26 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $38 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $12 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $91 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $53 14h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $76 14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 26h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $34 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $46 26h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $33 26h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $45 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $38 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 62¢ $45 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $23 2d
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $14 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $35 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Australia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $35 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $41 3d
Frantzdy Pierrot: 1+ goals BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $56 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $18 3d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $13 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 3d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $12 18d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $35 18d
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Girona FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $53 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.50 · official $73.50 (match) · 397 history records