Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cec…6c96 crypto 66 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$69 (+7%) realized +$70 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 36L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$28
14 days−$28
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$56
other 23% −$26
finance 20% +$2
politics 7% −$1
sports 3% +$12
tech 2% +$34
economics 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -48.4% -53.3% 29% 29% -55.4%
≤30d 7 -48.4% -53.3% 29% 29% -55.4%
≤90d 25 -43.2% -48.6% 32% 32% -44.7%
all 65 -13.7% -21.9% 45% 43% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 43% -1.1%
10% -29.4% 40% -10.5%
15% -36.2% 35% -19.2%
20% -42.4% 25% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$6 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized+$70
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)65 / 66
History coverage150d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $79 $78 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +96%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 18 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Apr 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 16 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Apr 04 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Apr 04 $8 −$3 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Apr 02 $15 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 02 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 02 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Apr 01 $5 +$5 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 01 $7 +$11 +148%
US government shutdown Saturday? Apr 01 $28 −$21 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 01 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Feb 14 $4 +$4 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Feb 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 13 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 13 $10 +$6 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 11 $14 +$21 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Feb 10 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 10 $31 +$21 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Feb 10 $92 +$48 +52%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 10? Feb 10 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4AM ET Feb 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Feb 10 $15 −$7 -48%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on February 9? Feb 09 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 09 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 6, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Feb 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 05 $10 +$36 +359%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 05 $5 +$3 +59%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 5? Feb 05 $10 −$9 -93%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 4? Feb 04 $34 −$16 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 02 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 02 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 02 $11 +$10 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $36 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $17 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 58¢ $10 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $30 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $31 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $27 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $18 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $28 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $30 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $4 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 70d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.85 · official $77.85 (match) · 187 history records