Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:35:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ceb…8dd8 world 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 323d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%28W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$13
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$24
other 18% +$1
politics 14% +$2
economics 7% −$1
finance 5% −$1
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 31 -0.8% -10.3% 26% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 50 +0.5% -9.1% 30% 2% -9.9%
all 88 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.0% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

323d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses28 / 60
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage323d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $75 $75 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $68 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $75 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $75 $0 -0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $69 −$1 -1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 22 $15 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $244 −$3 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $121 −$3 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $77 −$6 -7%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $180 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $12 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $71 −$7 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $276 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $86 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $95 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $182 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $196 −$2 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $97 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $87 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $95 +$2 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $95 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 29 $444 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $107 −$4 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $85 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $154 −$2 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $79 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $109 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $100 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $6 +$3 +50%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 21 $36 −$2 -6%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 17 $272 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $89 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 31 $98 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 31 $98 $0 +0%
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Mar 30 $64 +$3 +5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $95 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 29 $86 $0 -0%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 29 $88 −$2 -2%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $45 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Mar 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 27 $227 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $75 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $40 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $61 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $7 10h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $75 13h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $75 14h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $75 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $75 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $68 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $69 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $15 36h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 37h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 93¢ $29 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $28 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 92¢ $1 4d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $69 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $65 8d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $76 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $77 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $17 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $47 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $21 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.36 · official $75.36 (match) · 342 history records