Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.5
score
6C 0x6ce9…c3cc sports 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8,464 (+64%) realized +$9,152 · open −$688
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate71%12W / 5L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$701per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$174est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$7,283
other 6% +$1,244
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+42.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +50.6% +36.3% 64% 50% +64.9%
≤30d 17 +57.7% +42.6% 71% 59% +65.6%
≤90d 17 +57.7% +42.6% 71% 59% +65.6%
all 17 +57.7% +42.6% 71% 59% +65.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.6% 59% +65.6%
10% ← realistic here +29.0% 53% +49.8%
15% +16.5% 53% +35.3%
20% +5.1% 47% +22.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +83% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +58% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$754) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +56% → late +59% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$906 vs −$332 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.56 per $1 lost it wins $6.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9,152
Unrealized−$688
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses12 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$174
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage13d
Avg bet$701
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner KT Rolster Challengers 29¢ 0¢ $682 $1 −$681 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Nongshim Esports Academy 45¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $4,485 +$2,015 +45%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $770 +$5,217 +677%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $995 +$656 +66%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $453 +$581 +128%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $57 +$10 +18%
Valorant: Fennel vs QT DIG∞ - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs Bushido Wildcats - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $314 −$314 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $447 −$447 -100%
Valorant: ONSIDE GAMING vs DRX Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $810 −$810 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 16 $497 +$501 +101%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $754 +$1,244 +165%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $191 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs Infinite (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Jun 16 $594 +$23 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $232 +$208 +90%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe S Jun 04 $146 +$92 +63%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $267 +$317 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $2 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $97 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $4 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $0 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $9 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $5 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $76 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $76 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $1 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 49¢ $499 1h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 43¢ $814 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $6,500 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 80¢ $77 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $16 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $26 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $635 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $151 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $1 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $33 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $462 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $15 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $9 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 77¢ $82 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.18 · official $1.18 (match) · 125 history records