Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:54:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ce5…eb2c crypto 22 markets active 13h ago coverage 372d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$73 (-4%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate55%12W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$107
7 days+$107
14 days+$107
30 days+$107
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$184
crypto 24% −$63
politics 12% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 100% +4.5%
≤30d 1 +15.5% +4.5% 100% 100% +4.5%
≤90d 2 -42.2% -47.7% 50% 50% -18.9%
all 22 -14.9% -23.0% 55% 41% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 41% -13.7%
10% -30.4% 27% -22.0%
15% -37.1% 23% -29.5%
20% -43.3% 23% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% too few recent
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$36 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

372d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses12 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage372d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $692 +$107 +16%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 07 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET Mar 23 $51 −$7 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6PM ET Mar 23 $7 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10PM ET Mar 23 $24 −$17 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1PM ET Mar 23 $19 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 2AM ET Mar 23 $24 +$13 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 5AM ET Mar 23 $23 +$16 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11PM ET Mar 23 $24 +$25 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3PM ET Mar 23 $24 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6AM ET Mar 23 $25 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4AM ET Mar 23 $24 −$24 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3AM ET Mar 23 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 1AM ET Mar 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 12AM ET Mar 23 $24 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9PM ET Mar 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9PM ET Mar 22 $17 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 9AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 6AM ET Mar 22 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10PM ET Mar 22 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Real Madrid win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 18 $402 +$76 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $799 13h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $692 27h
Will Trump visit China by May 15? BUY No 9¢ $207 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $12 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $27 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 7PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 90d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $3 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 6PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $36 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records