Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

6C 0x6ce4…b4a2 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$224 (+2%) realized +$6,920 · open −$6,696

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +548% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +420% what you keep after slip

Net edge+420%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$3,158per market

Trades / day11.0pace

Fees−$51est.

Kalshi-fit33%portable

Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+486.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+548.0%	+486.3%	50%	50%	+8.1%
≤30d	2	+548.0%	+486.3%	50%	50%	+8.1%
≤90d	2	+548.0%	+486.3%	50%	50%	+8.1%
all	2	+548.0%	+486.3%	50%	50%	+8.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover11.0 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+486.3%	50%	+8.1%
10% ← realistic here	+430.2%	50%	-2.3%
15%	+378.9%	50%	-11.7%
20%	+332.0%	50%	-20.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +548% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$1,059 vs −$847 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.25 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$5

Realized+$6,920

Unrealized−$6,696

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Est. fees paid−$51

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$3,158

Trades / day11.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	68¢	0¢	$6,701	$5	−$6,696 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	Jun 17	$691	+$1,059	+153%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2,019	−$847	-42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$4,975	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1,791	12h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$92	13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	13¢	$1,026	13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	12¢	$1,090	13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	SELL Yes	36¢	$1,698	13h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$395	14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	14h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw?	BUY Yes	12¢	$203	14h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$793	15h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	11¢	$198	15h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.96 · official $4.96 (match) · 11 history records