Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:15:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6ce0…5f11 other 311 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,305 (+27%) realized +$2,816 · open +$489
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%59W / 214L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day62.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$969now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days−$176
14 days−$216
30 days+$753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$1,314
politics 10% +$534
culture 0% −$19
world 0% −$14
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-38.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -62.9% -66.5% 15% 15% -19.4%
≤30d 185 -41.2% -46.8% 22% 19% -2.1%
≤90d 273 -32.0% -38.5% 22% 19% +0.8%
all 273 -32.0% -38.5% 22% 19% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.5% 19% +0.8%
10% ← realistic here -44.4% 18% -8.8%
15% -49.7% 15% -17.7%
20% -54.7% 15% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -50% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$11 · ×5.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$969
Realized+$2,816
Unrealized+$489
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses59 / 214
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions42
Markets (closed)273 / 311
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day62.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 36¢ $10 $177 +$168 (+1742%)
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 58¢ $7 $104 +$97 (+1323%)
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 2¢ 16¢ $8 $82 +$74 (+889%)
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 55¢ $3 $76 +$73 (+2650%)
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 8¢ $10 $73 +$63 (+663%)
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 3¢ 14¢ $10 $53 +$43 (+454%)
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 40¢ $2 $51 +$50 (+3242%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $25 $50 +$25 (+102%)
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 30¢ 46¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+52%)
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 13¢ 42¢ $13 $42 +$29 (+222%)
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 35¢ $1 $39 +$38 (+3063%)
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 19¢ 20¢ $36 $38 +$2 (+6%)
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 38¢ $1 $36 +$35 (+3087%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 34¢ 24¢ $34 $24 −$10 (-29%)
Will Varna host Eurovision 2027? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+54%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $18 $12 −$6 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-76%)
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+288%)
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $4 +$2 (+200%)
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 12¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+200%)
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+30%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day 6? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 53¢ 5¢ $26 $3 −$24 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $22 +$78 +351%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 18 $91 −$38 -41%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $16 +$3 +17%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 17 $102 −$58 -56%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $411 +$113 +28%
Will Ted Cruz post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $67 +$89 +133%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 80-99 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Khamenei post 25-29 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Khamenei post 30-34 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Khamenei post 35-39 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei post 15-19 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $31 +$51 +167%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $53 +$61 +115%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$14 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $31 +$8 +27%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Khamenei post 20-24 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $13 51m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Khamenei post 60+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Khamenei post 55-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 2h
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Khamenei post 45-49 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $10 2h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $7 2h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $8 2h
Will Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 53.5 and 54 million views on day BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $41 4h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 6h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 6h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 12 to June BUY Yes 30¢ $30 7h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 8h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 10h
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $968.67 · official $968.68 (match) · 3500 history records