Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cdb…8a82 politics 309 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (248 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11,467 (+17%) realized +$11,932 · open −$465
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate13%55W / 372L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day247.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,407now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 84% +$746
politics 11% −$340
other 6% −$90
economics 0% +$1
sports 0% −$2
tech 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (248 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 -47.9% -52.9% 10% 5% -15.0%
≤30d 427 -44.4% -49.7% 13% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 427 -44.4% -49.7% 13% 5% -8.5%
all 427 -44.4% -49.7% 13% 5% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover247.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -49.7% 5% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -54.5% 4% -17.2%
15% -58.9% 4% -25.2%
20% -63.0% 3% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -84% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$6 · ×6.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2,407
Realized+$11,932
Unrealized−$465
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses55 / 372
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions162
Markets (closed)427 / 309
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$218
Trades / day247.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 162 History 427 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 74¢ 99¢ $303 $406 +$103 (+34%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 95¢ 100¢ $142 $150 +$7 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 49¢ 76¢ $92 $143 +$51 (+56%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 61¢ 24¢ $265 $103 −$162 (-61%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 87¢ 84¢ $87 $84 −$4 (-4%)
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? No 81¢ 76¢ $68 $63 −$5 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? No 70¢ 70¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $47 $49 +$2 (+5%)
Will Saudi Arabia sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 93¢ 95¢ $46 $47 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brad Lander win the NY-10 Democratic Primary by more than 30%? Yes 61¢ 44¢ $61 $44 −$16 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? No 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+1%)
Will April McClain Delaney be the Democratic nominee for MD-06? Yes 87¢ 84¢ $44 $42 −$1 (-3%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 59¢ 78¢ $30 $39 +$10 (+33%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 82¢ 78¢ $40 $39 −$2 (-4%)
Will Genter Drummond win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 76¢ 76¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+1%)
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 77¢ 74¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? No 67¢ 67¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 52¢ 66¢ $26 $33 +$6 (+25%)
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? No 42¢ 34¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-18%)
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Oklahoma? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 74¢ 60¢ $37 $30 −$7 (-20%)
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 45¢ 38¢ $36 $30 −$6 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 90¢ 38¢ $66 $28 −$38 (-57%)
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 32¢ 22¢ $39 $27 −$12 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 329 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 26, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - April 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 25, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 26, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 6, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - April 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 18m
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 19m
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 33m
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 95¢ $47 1h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 78¢ $39 1h
Will Trump say "No No No Donald" in June? BUY No 82¢ $16 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 1h
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 74¢ $37 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 95¢ $48 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 1h
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? BUY No 65¢ $13 1h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY Yes 59¢ $48 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $42 1h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $4 1h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 1h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY Yes 41¢ $56 1h
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY No 81¢ $40 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 2h
Will Antonio Reynoso be the Democratic nominee for NY-07? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 39¢ $51 2h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY No 33¢ $2 2h
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,406.67 · official $2,404.89 (match) · 3500 history records