Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cd6…64fe politics 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28 (-8%) realized −$26 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate57%47W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$3
other 31% −$24
world 12% +$4
crypto 7% −$6
economics 5% −$7
finance 1% +$1
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 0% -18.1%
≤30d 2 -9.9% -18.5% 50% 0% -18.1%
≤90d 39 -43.2% -48.6% 36% 26% -44.9%
all 83 -3.8% -13.0% 57% 47% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 47% -19.9%
10% -21.3% 37% -27.6%
15% -28.9% 27% -34.6%
20% -35.9% 23% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses47 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)83 / 95
History coverage161d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? No 75¢ 78¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $8 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 28¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 32¢ $5 $5 −$1 (-10%)
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 80¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+39%)
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $6 $3 −$3 (-48%)
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 15 $3 −$1 -23%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 13 $4 +$1 +41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P May 03 $2 $0 -25%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? Apr 23 $1 $0 -12%
Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.8%? Apr 16 $2 $0 +3%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%? Apr 14 $2 +$1 +72%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $4 $0 -12%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Will Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%? Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will UK GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.9%? Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Catherine Trautmann be the next mayor of Strasbourg? Mar 29 $0 $0 +70%
Will Grégory Doucet win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 27 $8 +$2 +32%
Will François Briançon be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 202 Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the March meeting? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be less than 0.7%? Mar 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Jean-Luc Moudenc be the next mayor of Toulouse following the 2026 Mar 26 $7 +$3 +51%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Mar 25 $3 $0 +11%
Will Germany GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.1% and 0.3%? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Josée Massi be the next mayor of Toulon? Mar 25 $3 +$2 +75%
Will Benoît Payan win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 23 $5 $0 +3%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 23 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Mar 22 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the Bank of New Zealand increase the official cash rate after the Mar 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Quentin Fillon Maillet (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympi Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Mar 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Mar 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Switzerland" this week? (January 18) Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Emilien Jacquelin (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 20 Mar 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Mar 17 $4 −$3 -85%
Will Franck Allisio win the Marseille mayor election? Mar 17 $1 $0 -67%
Will Christian Estrosi win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Mar 16 $5 −$4 -92%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Laure Lavalette be the next mayor of Toulon? Mar 15 $6 −$2 -28%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix? Mar 15 $4 $0 +11%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Chin Mar 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Will Charles Leclerc achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Chinese Gr Mar 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Mar 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Sébastien Delogu win the Marseille mayor election? Feb 24 $1 +$1 +100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Feb 22 $2 +$1 +40%
Will Eric Perrot (FRA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Bi Feb 20 $1 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 19 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el SELL Yes 44¢ $2 58m
Will Paraguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FI BUY Yes 57¢ $3 17h
Will Qatar reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 21h
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 21h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 33h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? SELL No 80¢ $8 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 62¢ $3 2d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 60¢ $3 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 2d
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will Iran be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $0 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $8 3d
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $8 3d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 77¢ $12 39d
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P SELL Yes 30¢ $2 42d
Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand P BUY Yes 40¢ $2 42d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 42d
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 52d
Will Japan GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.8%? SELL Yes 31¢ $2 59d
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 38¢ $4 62d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.51 · official $67.51 (match) · 244 history records