Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:03:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6cd0…b551 weather 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 434d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+2%) realized +$34 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$40
14 days+$60
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 66% −$4
weather 16% +$14
sports 8% +$12
crypto 7% +$9
other 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +34.3% +21.5% 80% 80% +21.4%
≤30d 12 +7.4% -2.8% 67% 67% -3.4%
≤90d 16 +10.1% -0.4% 69% 69% +0.2%
all 42 +9.6% -0.9% 36% 36% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 36% -8.0%
10% -10.4% 36% -16.8%
15% -19.0% 33% -24.8%
20% -27.0% 29% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$5 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

434d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage434d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28? No 76¢ 82¢ $28 $31 +$2 (+9%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 55¢ 50¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? Jun 27 $24 +$14 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $30 +$22 +71%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 23? Jun 24 $15 +$8 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? Jun 24 $24 +$22 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? Jun 20 $13 +$9 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 17 $17 +$7 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 15 $22 +$14 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? Jun 05 $28 +$13 +46%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $13 +$9 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 26 $21 +$14 +70%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23? May 24 $21 +$7 +32%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $268 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 28 $259 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 28 $268 $0 -0%
Devils vs. Capitals Nov 16 $6 +$8 +138%
76ers vs. Pistons Nov 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Kings Nov 14 $18 +$10 +59%
Celtics vs. Magic Nov 13 $7 +$10 +138%
Rockets vs. Spurs Nov 09 $4 +$7 +156%
Panthers vs. Kings Nov 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 19 $32 −$1 -2%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 19 $11 −$1 -8%
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $16 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Oct 17 $36 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 07 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in October? Oct 04 $14 −$1 -8%
Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands Sep 30 $27 −$1 -5%
Lord Miles completes 40-day water fast in the desert? Sep 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Sep 08 $13 $0 -3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 05 $9 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 04 $19 −$1 -3%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 04 $28 −$1 -2%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 04 $27 $0 -1%
Will the Cavaliers beat the Heat 4-0 Apr 22 $5 $0 -4%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $5 $0 -3%
NHL Playoffs: Stars vs. Avalanche (To Advance) Apr 19 $6 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 28? BUY No 76¢ $29 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 26? BUY No 63¢ $24 40h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 23? BUY No 64¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 23? BUY No 51¢ $24 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? BUY Yes 56¢ $25 7d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 18? BUY Yes 59¢ $13 9d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 55¢ $29 10d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY No 70¢ $17 12d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 13d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $10 15d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 16d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 10? BUY No 55¢ $26 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? BUY No 67¢ $28 30d
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens BUY Hurricanes 58¢ $13 31d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 58¢ $21 33d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 23? BUY No 75¢ $21 35d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 64¢ $13 37d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $270 180d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $270 180d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $268 180d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 180d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 180d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $259 181d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $268 181d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $268 181d
Devils vs. Capitals BUY Devils 42¢ $6 224d
76ers vs. Pistons BUY 76ers 34¢ $10 225d
Hawks vs. Kings BUY Hawks 63¢ $18 226d
Celtics vs. Magic BUY Celtics 42¢ $7 229d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.51 · official $56.51 (match) · 93 history records