Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:42:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
6C 0x6ccd…70c5 other 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%31W / 57L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$131now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 28% −$19
other 25% −$14
politics 22% +$9
sports 19% +$12
finance 5% +$25
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.3% -10.7% 10% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -1.1% -10.6% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 40 -0.7% -10.2% 28% 0% -9.5%
all 88 +3.6% -6.3% 35% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 3% -9.4%
10% -15.2% 1% -18.1%
15% -23.4% 1% -26.0%
20% -30.9% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$131
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses31 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)88 / 90
History coverage465d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $131 $131 +$0 (+0%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $294 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $131 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $171 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $34 −$1 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $56 −$4 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $149 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 $0 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $133 +$3 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $147 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 11 $146 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $114 −$3 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $150 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $159 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $136 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $138 −$1 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $138 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 02 $150 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $293 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $141 −$4 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $141 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $152 +$5 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $226 −$8 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $139 −$2 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $153 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 23 $146 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $146 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $33 −$4 -11%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $311 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $172 −$11 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $287 +$26 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 1200-1239 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $178 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $145 +$2 +2%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $1,207 −$4 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,035 +$5 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 15 $961 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,154 +$2 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $1,150 +$4 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $1 $0 -7%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 23 $1 $0 +19%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $114K and $115K on July 26 at 5PM Aug 10 $5 $0 +2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $101 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $30 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $11 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $133 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $144 6h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $98 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $33 12h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $3 14h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $128 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $3 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $51 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $54 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $40 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $40 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $32 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $21 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $31 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $149 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $149 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $136 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $133 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $147 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $147 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $143 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $130.97 · official $130.97 (match) · 276 history records