Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:18:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6ccb…05b3 crypto 96 markets active 0h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$270 (-5%) realized +$540 · open −$810
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate55%47W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$27
7 days−$27
14 days−$27
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$997
sports 32% −$142
other 1% −$5
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -24.9% -32.1% 50% 50% -95.1%
≤30d 2 -24.9% -32.1% 50% 50% -95.1%
≤90d 6 +11.5% +0.8% 67% 67% -59.4%
all 86 +17.1% +5.9% 55% 51% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 51% -15.3%
10% -4.2% 48% -23.4%
15% -13.5% 41% -30.8%
20% -21.9% 29% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +30% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$37 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized+$540
Unrealized−$810
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses47 / 39
Open positions10
Markets (closed)86 / 96
History coverage269d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 2¢ 2¢ $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Down 77¢ 0¢ $225 $1 −$224 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Up 2¢ 0¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-98%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $51 $0 −$51 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 10 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 10 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 10 $1 +$1 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 26, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 29 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jan 25 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 25 $3 −$3 -84%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 25 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 25 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 25 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 24 $23 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 23 $25 +$11 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 23 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 23 $19 +$12 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 21 $26 +$13 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 21 $21 +$8 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 21 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 21 $1 +$11 +1147%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 21 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 21 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 21 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jan 21 $21 −$11 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 20 $20 +$7 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 20 $60 +$24 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 20 $133 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jan 20 $20 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 20 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 20 $6 +$3 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 20 $254 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 20 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jan 20 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jan 20 $6 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 20 $2 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 20 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 20 $22 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jan 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jan 19 $196 +$102 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jan 19 $2 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jan 19 $237 −$39 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jan 19 $108 −$37 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jan 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jan 19 $7 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jan 19 $27 +$16 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $16 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $102 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $104 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $16 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 22¢ $1 67d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $1 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.70 · official $283.95 · 383 history records