Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cc4…6c86 world 84 markets active 1h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%27W / 56L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$13
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% +$20
other 17% −$1
politics 17% −$5
sports 9% −$6
economics 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -9.9% -18.5% 25% 12% -10.0%
≤30d 26 +37.3% +24.2% 42% 15% -8.5%
≤90d 78 +12.0% +1.3% 35% 8% -9.0%
all 83 +6.4% -3.7% 33% 7% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 7% -9.3%
10% -12.9% 5% -18.0%
15% -21.3% 2% -25.9%
20% -29.0% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses27 / 56
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage526d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 88¢ $53 $53 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $54 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $109 −$1 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $203 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $55 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $96 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +31%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$1 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $64 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$2 +33%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $68 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $124 −$5 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $50 −$1 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $221 −$5 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $99 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 06 $80 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $66 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 01 $50 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $130 +$8 +6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $59 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $32 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $46 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $21 +$20 +97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $40 +$1 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 18 $44 +$1 +2%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 17 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $38 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $39 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $3 $0 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 09 $2 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $112 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $85 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $124 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 11 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $26 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $54 4h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $54 7h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $50 15h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $60 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $9 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $20 30h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $60 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $60 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $55 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $59 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $61 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $25 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 73¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 74¢ $35 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $40 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $56 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $17 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.97 · official $52.80 · 396 history records