Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
6C 0x6cc1…27db other 121 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-0%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%13W / 108L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$13
politics 29% −$10
sports 12% −$32
crypto 6% −$2
world 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 79 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 121 +4.1% -5.8% 11% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 6% -9.7%
10% -14.8% 4% -18.3%
15% -23.0% 3% -26.2%
20% -30.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×4.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses13 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)121 / 121
History coverage133d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 121 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $888 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $183 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $178 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 25 $229 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 24 $240 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $215 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $236 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $252 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $190 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $240 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $204 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $261 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $208 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $259 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $650 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $220 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $483 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 10 $38 $0 +0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $204 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 19 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $396 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $182 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 16 $193 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $181 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $216 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 15 $396 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $196 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 15 $267 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $218 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $211 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $448 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $184 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $234 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $189 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 08 $236 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $234 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 07 $230 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $265 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 6h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 6h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 24h
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $203 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $203 23d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $183 24d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $183 24d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 26d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $229 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $229 26d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $240 27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $240 28d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $215 28d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $215 28d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 28d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 29d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $252 29d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $252 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $234 29d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $234 30d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $190 30d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $190 31d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $240 32d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $240 32d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $204 32d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $204 34d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $219 34d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $219 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 342 history records