Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
6C 0x6cc0…e0be crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$5 (-3%) realized −$13 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$13
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$3
crypto 35% −$8
other 22% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-36.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -29.6% -36.3% 30% 30% -17.1%
≤30d 20 -29.6% -36.3% 30% 30% -17.1%
≤90d 20 -29.6% -36.3% 30% 30% -17.1%
all 20 -29.6% -36.3% 30% 30% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.3% 30% -17.1%
10% -42.4% 30% -25.0%
15% -48.0% 20% -32.2%
20% -53.1% 20% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -57% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage3d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 75¢ 80¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Netherlands leading at halftime? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $24 −$10 -41%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $6 −$4 -65%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$4 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $22 +$7 +34%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$7 +79%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $6 −$2 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $25 45m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $25 46m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $4 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 44¢ $14 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 11¢ $2 1h
Japan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $24 3h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $6 3h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $7 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $4 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 66¢ $29 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 48¢ $19 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 2d
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 22¢ $9 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 2d
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.84 · official $26.84 (match) · 43 history records