Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6cbf…17cc crypto 66 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$239 (-3%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$112per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$227
14 days−$233
30 days−$234
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$7
crypto 30% −$188
sports 1% −$32
other 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -12.9% -21.2% 44% 34% -21.0%
≤30d 66 -12.5% -20.9% 42% 33% -12.6%
≤90d 66 -12.5% -20.9% 42% 33% -12.6%
all 66 -12.5% -20.9% 42% 33% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 33% -12.6%
10% -28.4% 27% -20.9%
15% -35.3% 17% -28.6%
20% -41.7% 15% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)66 / 66
History coverage23d
Avg bet$112
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 66 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $70 −$10 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$13 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $45 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$46 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $32 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $35 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $17 +$13 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$12 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$19 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$21 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $38 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $60 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$9 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$27 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $82 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $34 +$23 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $90 −$10 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $40 −$11 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$39 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $50 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$30 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $74 −$12 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $13 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $20 +$13 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 18 $40 −$4 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $25 +$26 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $22 −$17 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$9 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $56 −$15 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$69 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $66 −$7 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $35 −$34 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $42 +$71 +169%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 64¢ $41 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $30 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $19 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $40 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $63 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $50 8m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $6 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $8 14m
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Down 63¢ $43 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $30 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $46 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $42 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $42 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $32 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $22 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $30 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $46 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $35 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $30 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $17 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 68¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 286 history records