Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T14:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
6C 0x6cbd…0351 weather 1660 markets active 5d ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$59 (-1%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%682W / 904L
Drawdown63%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$35
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$178
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +36.0% +23.0% 50% 50% -6.7%
≤30d 533 -16.9% -24.8% 36% 36% -16.7%
≤90d 1511 +6.1% -4.0% 43% 43% -5.3%
all 1586 +5.4% -4.7% 43% 43% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 43% -5.5%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 43% -14.6%
15% -22.1% 42% -22.8%
20% -29.8% 26% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +21% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses682 / 904
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1586 / 1660
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1586 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? Jun 18 $3 +$2 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $3 +$5 +150%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$6 +163%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 +$16 +1492%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +64%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 15? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$3 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $7 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 15 $3 +$3 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$4 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$2 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 58¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 56¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 63¢ $3 5d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 68¢ $4 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 66¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.