Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:09:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cbd…42f3 other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$685 (-5%) realized −$753 · open +$68
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%5W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$301per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$9,375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 89% +$89
crypto 10% −$1,083
sports 1% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-55.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -11.1% -19.5% 50% 50% -10.1%
≤30d 20 -50.3% -55.0% 25% 25% -72.8%
≤90d 20 -50.3% -55.0% 25% 25% -72.8%
all 20 -50.3% -55.0% 25% 25% -72.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -55.0% 25% -72.8%
10% -59.3% 25% -75.4%
15% -63.2% 20% -77.8%
20% -66.8% 15% -80.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -70% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -72% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$80 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$9,375
Realized−$753
Unrealized+$68
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses5 / 15
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions23
Markets (closed)20 / 44
History coverage17d
Avg bet$301
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $2,778 $3,322 +$544 (+20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $2,235 $1,792 −$442 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1,591 $1,538 −$53 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1,114 $1,208 +$94 (+8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $491 $427 −$63 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 19¢ $128 $259 +$130 (+102%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $219 $202 −$17 (-8%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $191 $154 −$37 (-19%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $97 $116 +$20 (+20%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $69 $82 +$13 (+19%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $75 $60 −$15 (-20%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $64 $55 −$9 (-14%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $74 $52 −$22 (-30%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 1.5 Under 68¢ 68¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $36 $20 −$16 (-45%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 Under 32¢ 30¢ $16 $15 −$1 (-8%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $28 $13 −$15 (-55%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $42 $6 −$36 (-85%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-9%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-11%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$4 +39%
Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 +$6 +57%
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 +$7 +132%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $195 +$55 +28%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $67 −$30 -45%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 13 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $125 −$119 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$37 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $205 −$200 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$98 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $152 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $31 +$36 +115%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $43 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $16 4h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Colombia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 68¢ $34 4h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7 4h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $168 4h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $816 4h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $137 16h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $87 16h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $40 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 16h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 16h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $7 16h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 16h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $17 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 79¢ $119 17h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 13¢ $20 17h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 13¢ $13 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 75¢ $76 18h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Norway vs. France: France O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 42¢ $5 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 20¢ $1 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 France? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 20h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 20h
Rayan Cherki: 1+ shots AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 71¢ $10 20h
Bradley Barcola: 1+ shots AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 63¢ $10 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 13¢ $36 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,375.08 · official $9,375.01 (match) · 247 history records