Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:33:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cbd…5480 crypto 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$751 (-45%) realized −$737 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$179
7 days−$247
14 days−$288
30 days−$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$662
other 11% −$129
sports 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-56.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 -23.1% -30.4% 28% 28% -38.9%
≤30d 78 -27.0% -34.0% 27% 27% -42.0%
≤90d 136 -51.5% -56.1% 18% 17% -59.0%
all 136 -51.5% -56.1% 18% 17% -59.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -56.1% 17% -59.0%
10% -60.3% 17% -63.0%
15% -64.1% 17% -66.5%
20% -67.6% 17% -69.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -87% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$737
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 112
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)136 / 139
History coverage60d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 136 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 +$11 +192%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$9 -53%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +96%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$7 +330%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +135%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $58 −$21 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$14 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $169 −$159 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $63 +$83 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$11 +95%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $55 +$47 +86%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$6 +162%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$29 +116%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $16 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $4 24m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 45m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $9 52m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $23 54m
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 56m
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $12 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $8 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $10 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $9 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 0¢ $0 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.19 (match) · 221 history records