Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cbb…89ab other 105 markets active 219d ago coverage 168d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 167d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$298,293 (-66%) realized −$298,293 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +198% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +125% what you keep after slip
Net edge+125%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate68%78W / 36L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$4,288per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 168d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 31% +$86,809
politics 27% +$131,767
world 17% +$47,423
crypto 10% −$10,764
sports 9% +$54,859
other 6% +$40,764
tech 0% +$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+169.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -97.4% -97.7% 0% 0% -93.3%
≤30d 7 -97.4% -97.7% 0% 0% -93.3%
≤90d 7 -97.4% -97.7% 0% 0% -93.3%
all 114 +197.8% +169.5% 68% 61% +58.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +169.5% 61% +58.9%
10% ← realistic here +143.7% 52% +43.7%
15% +120.1% 50% +29.8%
20% +98.5% 45% +17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +198% · $-wt +77% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$1,431) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +175% → late +220% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
19.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,039 vs −$1,231 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.87 per $1 lost it wins $8.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$298,293
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses78 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)114 / 105
History coverage168d ⚠
Avg bet$4,288
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 114 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? Jun 29 $70 −$219 -314%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 29 $625 −$518 -83%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
US national Ethereum reserve in 2025? Jun 29 $148 −$148 -100%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Jun 29 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025? Jun 29 $561 −$557 -99%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Jun 29 $69 −$69 -100%
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? Jun 29 $758 −$641 -84%
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? Nov 07 $41,972 −$16,562 -40%
Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025? Oct 21 $1 −$464 -40985%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Oct 13 $66 +$69 +105%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Oct 08 $140 +$6 +4%
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 06 $163 −$101 -62%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 05 $844 +$2,307 +273%
US government shutdown in 2025? Oct 05 $85 +$4,926 +5819%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 05 $14 +$13 +91%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 07 $62 +$1,838 +2965%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 05 $54 +$168 +308%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 2? Aug 24 $134 +$18 +13%
Ripple ETF approved by July 31? Aug 24 $590 −$48 -8%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be between 5% and 10%? Aug 24 $5 −$4 -78%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 40% and 60% on August 15 Aug 24 $81 +$2,078 +2562%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 17 $13 +$8 +56%
Will Jannik Sinner win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 17 $81 +$141 +174%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 1? Jul 09 $195 −$14 -7%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 11? Jul 09 $244 +$26 +11%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 10? Jul 08 $321 +$49 +15%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 12 or late Jul 07 $329 +$5 +2%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jul 06 $939 +$3,047 +325%
Will Andrew Cuomo’s RCV margin of victory be less than 5%? Jul 05 $346 +$671 +194%
Solana ETF approved by July 31? Jul 04 $182 +$1,146 +630%
Trump x Epstein files made public in 2025? Jul 03 $504 +$2 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 03 $1,930 +$9,139 +473%
No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting? Jul 03 $658 +$2,672 +406%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 3? Jul 02 $248 −$236 -95%
Will the NYC Mayoral Democratic Primary be decided in round 4? Jul 02 $138 +$54 +40%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Jul 02 $13 +$1,815 +13961%
Will the next reconciliation bill be passed before July? Jul 02 $531 +$117 +22%
Iran Nuke in 2025? Jul 01 $18 +$45 +253%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Jul 01 $1,129 +$1,119 +99%
US kicks trans members out of military before July? Jul 01 $220 −$215 -98%
Litecoin ETF approved by July 31? Jul 01 $19 −$4 -21%
Doge ETF approved by July 31? Jul 01 $100 −$30 -30%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $611 +$665 +109%
Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before July? Jul 01 $590 +$807 +137%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 01 $857 −$614 -72%
Will next reconciliation bill end electric vehicle tax credits in 2025 Jul 01 $9 +$43 +473%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jul 01 $66 +$157 +238%
Will reconciliation bill be passed by June 30? Jul 01 $672 +$114 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? SELL Yes $27 218d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? SELL Yes $1 218d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? SELL Yes $21 218d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? SELL Yes $23 218d
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? SELL Yes $44 218d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL Yes 26¢ $25 233d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 10¢ $27 233d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 22¢ $165 233d
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 233d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 240d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 240d
OpenAI becomes a for-profit in 2025? SELL Yes 24¢ $23 244d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 244d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes 12¢ $13 244d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes 11¢ $12 244d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 40¢ $22 245d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 35¢ $19 245d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 19¢ $42 246d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 246d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 247d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 18¢ $24 247d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 15¢ $32 248d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 16¢ $16 248d
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in 2025? SELL Yes $4 248d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes $10 248d
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration in 2025? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 248d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 14¢ $19 248d
Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2025? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 248d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 248d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 250d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records