Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
6C 0x6cbb…8a37 sports 119 markets active 2h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$810 (+2%) realized +$815 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%42W / 76L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$329per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$379est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,251
7 days−$591
14 days−$442
30 days−$2,013
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$3,306
other 31% +$535
crypto 19% −$3,471
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +11.5% +0.9% 32% 32% -15.5%
≤30d 71 -10.4% -18.9% 31% 31% -16.6%
≤90d 118 -4.6% -13.7% 36% 36% -8.5%
all 118 -4.6% -13.7% 36% 36% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 36% -8.5%
10% -21.9% 31% -17.3%
15% -29.5% 28% -25.3%
20% -36.4% 24% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$340 vs −$183 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$815
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses42 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$379
Open positions1
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage61d
Avg bet$329
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $201 $197 −$5 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 48 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $2,622 −$1,494 -57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,136 −$96 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $604 +$174 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 −$80 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $176 +$124 +70%
João Neves: 1+ goals Jun 17 $31 +$146 +473%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists Jun 17 $30 −$29 -98%
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $31 +$136 +442%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $159 +$211 +133%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $107 +$52 +48%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $71 −$70 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $204 −$146 -72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $727 −$27 -4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $496 +$232 +47%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $406 +$1,013 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $324 −$317 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $546 −$541 -99%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Jun 14 $477 +$867 +182%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $69 −$68 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $125 −$5 -4%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm Jun 13 $289 −$282 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $494 −$248 -50%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $153 −$13 -9%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $125 −$7 -5%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $126 −$123 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $68 −$66 -97%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $74 −$6 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $479 +$396 +83%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $380 +$101 +26%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 08 $156 −$152 -98%
Will Kamatamare Sanuki win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $567 −$556 -98%
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia Jun 04 $175 −$173 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 04 $506 −$333 -66%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 03 $135 −$133 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 01 $141 −$137 -97%
Spread: Thunder (-2.5) May 30 $378 −$373 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $1,139 +$2,577 +226%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) May 30 $626 +$517 +83%
Pallacanestro Brescia vs. Olimpia Milano May 29 $308 −$303 -98%
Will Saint-Etienne win on 2026-05-26? May 29 $225 −$225 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET May 29 $254 +$56 +22%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $191 −$188 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5 May 28 $1 $0 -4%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $1,157 +$1,123 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 28 $422 −$400 -95%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $313 −$306 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $206 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $7 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,481 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,040 16h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,136 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1,051 16h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1,134 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $778 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $604 18h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $25 22h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $81 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $176 45h
João Neves: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $176 45h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $30 2d
João Neves: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $31 2d
Nuno Mendes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $21 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 18¢ $31 2d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 42¢ $159 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $159 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $107 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $26 3d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $71 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 11¢ $58 3d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 37¢ $204 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 63¢ $700 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $727 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $727 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $496 4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $406 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.62 · official $196.62 (match) · 213 history records