Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:07:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
6C 0x6cb9…f414 sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$642 (-3%) realized −$547 · open −$95
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate71%74W / 30L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$199per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$443now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$171
7 days−$12
14 days−$2
30 days+$124
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% −$886
other 24% +$85
politics 21% −$105
crypto 7% −$241
world 6% +$179
culture 3% +$14
economics 3% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -2.8% -12.1% 67% 36% -9.5%
≤30d 56 +4.5% -5.5% 70% 41% -8.2%
≤90d 67 +3.0% -6.8% 72% 42% -8.8%
all 104 +3.5% -6.4% 71% 44% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 44% -12.8%
10% -15.3% 27% -21.1%
15% -23.5% 14% -28.7%
20% -31.0% 8% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$94 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$443
Realized−$547
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses74 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions6
Markets (closed)104 / 110
History coverage196d
Avg bet$199
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner T1 86¢ 92¢ $211 $224 +$14 (+6%)
Will T1 Qualify to the MSI 2026 Knockout Stage Yes 92¢ 89¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+3%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? No 82¢ 81¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Team Liquid 67¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $117 −$47 -41%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $145 +$8 +5%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 28 $13 $0 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $92 +$5 +6%
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 28 $77 +$6 +7%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $478 −$23 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $17 +$6 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $86 +$12 +14%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $139 +$7 +5%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $5 −$3 -65%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $124 +$29 +24%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $6 −$3 -46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $85 +$4 +5%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 27 $50 +$8 +16%
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $56 +$8 +14%
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $20 +$1 +6%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $42 +$3 +7%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 26 $125 +$1 +1%
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $92 −$76 -83%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $93 +$20 +22%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 26 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $106 +$91 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$6 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $86 +$135 +158%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $12 +$4 +34%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $16 −$4 -27%
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 25 $242 −$59 -24%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $45 +$8 +18%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 24 $16 −$1 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$10 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $25 +$4 +17%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $78 +$11 +15%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 +$20 +51%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$2 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 20 $383 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $89 +$21 +24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $20 +$4 +20%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $145 +$1 +1%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $40 +$17 +42%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $35 +$18 +50%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $35 +$49 +138%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $1,915 +$19 +1%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2,014 −$303 -15%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El Jun 03 $239 +$100 +42%
Will Choo Kyung-ho win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 03 $461 +$162 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $7 9m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $8 9m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $204 32m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $154 33m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 62¢ $101 35m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 47¢ $69 35m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Liquid 42¢ $83 35m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $18 42m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 67¢ $222 43m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 31¢ $60 43m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $4 46m
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $117 52m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $16 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $17 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $153 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $56 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 88¢ $71 1h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $97 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 95¢ $85 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $6 1h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 100¢ $102 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $6 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 3h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL No 97¢ $99 3h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 65¢ $6 5h
Will South Korea be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 90¢ $8 6h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 90¢ $85 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $442.69 · official $442.70 (match) · 563 history records