Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:39:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
6C 0x6cb8…2dfb politics 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate6%7W / 104L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$11
politics 40% −$12
sports 4% −$28
economics 4% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 20 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 103 +0.2% -9.4% 5% 3% -9.6%
all 111 -2.3% -11.6% 6% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 4% -9.7%
10% -20.1% 3% -18.4%
15% -27.8% 1% -26.2%
20% -34.9% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses7 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage114d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $67 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $23 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $225 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $36 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $36 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 01 $244 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $750 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 25 $446 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $184 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $244 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $211 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $257 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 13 $248 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $213 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $491 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $193 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 10 $259 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $188 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $217 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $226 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $255 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $261 $0 -0%
Will Reilly Opelka win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $236 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $458 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $185 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $242 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $413 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $422 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $216 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $238 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $194 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $23 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $40 4d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $23 6d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $33 10d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $38 11d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $38 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 13d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $36 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $36 17d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $30 18d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $43 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 19d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $21 19d
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $21 19d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 317 history records