Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:33:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

6C 0x6cb7…7216 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 40d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)

Total PnL +$1,548 (+10%) realized +$1,551 · open −$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip

Net edge-49%after slip

Net WR30%break-even

Win rate30%10W / 23L

Whale WR56%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$479per market

Trades / day5.5pace

Fees−$270est.

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$397now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$888

7 days+$845

14 days+$514

30 days+$108

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +30%

net ROI/market (all)-46.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+2.4%	-7.3%	50%	50%	+12.2%
≤30d	12	-10.2%	-18.8%	42%	42%	-6.9%
≤90d	33	-40.9%	-46.6%	30%	30%	-6.9%
all	33	-40.9%	-46.6%	30%	30%	-6.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.5 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-46.6%	30%	-6.9%
10%	-51.7%	30%	-15.8%
15%	-56.3%	30%	-23.9%
20%	-60.6%	24%	-31.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 59% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -41% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 56% (≥$504) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -46% → late -37% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$706 vs −$292 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.05 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage

Net worth$397

Realized+$1,551

Unrealized−$3

Win rate (resolved)30%

Wins / losses10 / 23

Whale WR (big bets)56%

Est. fees paid−$270

Open positions1

Markets (closed)33 / 34

History coverage40d

Avg bet$479

Trades / day5.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 33 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$400	$397	−$3 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$555	−$60	-11%
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	Jun 21	$402	+$261	+65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$504	+$209	+41%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	Jun 21	$208	−$110	-53%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$803	+$588	+73%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$203	−$200	-99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$339	−$278	-82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$507	+$435	+86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	Jun 14	$1,629	−$720	-44%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$611	+$966	+158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$589	−$577	-98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 3 Winner	May 25	$406	−$406	-100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	May 19	$510	−$500	-98%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5)	May 19	$507	−$500	-99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner	May 19	$185	−$185	-100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner	May 19	$204	−$204	-100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner	May 18	$221	−$221	-100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season	May 18	$487	−$483	-99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 2 Winner	May 17	$216	−$216	-100%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON - Game 1 Winner	May 17	$320	+$102	+32%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	May 17	$528	−$180	-34%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner	May 17	$339	−$50	-15%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner	May 17	$578	+$214	+37%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2	May 17	$402	−$400	-100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner	May 17	$222	−$220	-99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner	May 17	$784	−$769	-98%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car	May 17	$2,954	+$4,161	+141%
Game Handicap: DK (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5)	May 13	$113	+$73	+64%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Nongshim Red Force (+1.5)	May 13	$113	+$51	+46%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner	May 13	$102	−$100	-98%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner	May 13	$115	−$112	-98%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner	May 13	$115	−$112	-98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner	May 13	$115	−$112	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	63¢	$247	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	62¢	$248	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	69¢	$555	6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	62¢	$405	6h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	SELL Japan	100¢	$456	15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	SELL Yes	100¢	$714	15h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	SELL Japan	81¢	$207	17h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	56¢	$202	17h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	56¢	$5	17h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	56¢	$179	17h
Spread: Japan (-1.5)	BUY Japan	56¢	$16	17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	70¢	$504	18h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	SELL Ecuador	25¢	$98	20h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Ecuador	52¢	$202	21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Ecuador	52¢	$3	21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Ecuador	52¢	$2	21h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5)	BUY Ecuador	52¢	$1	21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	57¢	$803	29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$203	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	5¢	$61	6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	6¢	$39	6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	48¢	$254	6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	48¢	$46	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL No	100¢	$942	6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	53¢	$507	7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	BUY Gen.G	58¢	$425	7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL Gen.G	56¢	$552	7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL Gen.G	57¢	$5	7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL Gen.G	57¢	$315	7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI	SELL Gen.G	57¢	$17	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $396.77 · official $396.77 (match) · 225 history records