Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:19:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

6C 0x6cb7…c92e other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$46 (-49%) realized −$47 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate50%1W / 1L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$31per market

Trades / day0.4pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-34.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+45.7%	+31.8%	100%	100%	+31.8%
≤30d	2	-27.2%	-34.1%	50%	50%	-65.0%
≤90d	2	-27.2%	-34.1%	50%	50%	-65.0%
all	2	-27.2%	-34.1%	50%	50%	-65.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-34.1%	50%	-65.0%
10%	-40.4%	50%	-68.3%
15%	-46.2%	50%	-71.4%
20%	-51.4%	0%	-74.2%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -61% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -27% · $-wt -61% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$8 vs −$49 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.17 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized−$47

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses1 / 1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage7d

Avg bet$31

Trades / day0.4

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	92¢	95¢	$26	$26	+$1 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$18	+$8	+46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$49	−$49	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	92¢	$26	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$18	6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	84¢	$49	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.49 · official $26.52 (match) · 4 history records